Liner oil price may exceed freight rate within two months

　　In response to the recent business environment of stagnant liner shipping industry and no improvement in freight rates,Maersk chief executive Gordon Goldin recently responded to a public event in Singapore that the whole industry has seen the trend of low freight rates as"unsustainable".Some analysts even boldly predicted that the actual freight rate is likely to be lower than the fuel price in the next two months.

　　When it comes to the global economic downturn,there is no improvement in the liner transportation industry,and Gordin is helpless.Although freight revenue generally declined,Maersk insisted on rebuilding 10 super large container ships with 18000 containers to Korean shipyards.He explained:"investing in shipbuilding is investing in the future."However,he did not talk about the problem of over supply of ships and transport capacity in the whole industry,resulting in poor market revenue of the shipping industry.

　　Low freight is forcing shipowners to"burn money"

　　Gording believes that the first two quarters of the liner shipping industry in the first two quarters of this year have achieved the same level of freight revenue,which is neither the worst nor the best.In some regional routes,such as the trans Atlantic line,freight rates began to rise,and the Asia Europe line and the Pan Pacific line were obviously affected by the excess capacity.After considering the fuel adjustment factor,the spot route freight rate of Asia Europe line is almost zero.

　　"At this stage,most shipping companies will arrange the delivery of new ships to operate on the Asia Europe line.The reason is very simple.This is the only trading area that can provide the source of goods to meet the needs of these large ships.Moreover,it lacks flexibility.Some even say that the current freight rate is forcing shipowners to"burn money",which is very harmful,"he said

　　Some fund managers predict that in the next two months,the drop in real freight income will be lower than the price of marine fuel oil.Maersk seems to be out of touch with the cold eye to see whether supply will overwhelm demand in the second half of the year.

　　Gording said at the press conference that the key is to see the volume of goods in the peak season."We've seen signs of this,so we're ready to invest in high capacity.The question is how big is the peak scale of peak season and how long is the period to support such a large transport capacity in the market."

　　Raymond Zhen,an analyst at the international research department of Lianchang in Singapore,predicts that the supply of liner transportation industry will exceed demand by 5.1%this year.

　　Recently,many people are pessimistic and confused about the market due to the repeated ordering of new large ships by shipping companies.Gordin did not respond to the announcement that 20 large ships with a capacity of 18000 containers were ordered this year,whether it was too indulgent."It's actually a sound and visionary investment,"he says.In the shipping industry,you can't invest in the spot market because you'll never get the benefit.When you invest in ships,you have to take a longer-term view."

　　Shipping companies frequently order new ships

　　Maersk expects Asia Europe line traffic demand to grow by 5-8%in 2011-2015."If that's true,more capacity will still be needed in the next few years."

　　Maersk also has a third option to sign a final batch of 10 vessels carrying 18000 containers with shipyards."The ships will be delivered as far as 2015,and we don't feel the need for them in the foreseeable future,"he said